Enrollment Isn’t Down In Shoreline Schools — Stop Using it as an Excuse
Update as of Nov 1: I was made aware of an error in the original calculations that lowered the enrollment totals — I have updated the below chart and some text, but the overall trends remain the same. K-12 enrollment is going up, and K-5 enrollment is more flat, but is not declining. I have slightly adjusted the message below for accuracy, but the overall picture is similar. The biggest change is that there isn’t a precipitous increase over last year — rather a more modest increase. THANK YOU to the person that brought this to my attention.
The Shoreline Public Schools district in Washington state is facing a budget crisis like many other Washington schools. This has forced the school board and district administration to consider school closure as one way to reduce spending.
On the Shoreline District School Capacity Review and Closure Consideration Task Force website, it states “As Shoreline School District examines the most effective and efficient ways to deliver the best educational service we can provide to our community, we must examine many factors, including declining enrollment, school funding limitations, and the resources and supports required.”
Declining enrollment was cited throughout the 9 month task force process, and was mentioned in the final recommendation to the school board — presented on October 22, 2024 and seen on slide 8 of their recommendation. Here is a picture of that slide:
This slide really stuck with me.
Take note, the chart says the big decline from 2019 to 2020 is “Remote Learning and 6th Grade Transition” which are two very unrelated things.
It kept me up at night. I couldn’t stop thinking about it. And when the news struck that Seattle Public Schools doesn’t have declining enrollment, I decided I had to dig deeper. So I filed a Public Records Request with OSPI. The reason this chart bothered me is that it seems to show not necessarily declining enrollment, but just the shift of 6th grades from elementary and middle schools, which is a very disingenuous way to present the data. Here is what the data for enrollment looks like since the 2007–2008 school year, up until the recently shared October 2024 enrollment data:
The bottom (purple) line represents yearly average K-5 enrollment. The final data point is from October 2024 enrollment, at 4025 students. To break down the K-5 data, it peaked in 2017–2018, but the current enrollment is above enrollment averages in 8 of the last 18 years. The October enrollment number comes from the slides presented at the Oct 22 recommendation meeting, data as of 10/1/24. Did K-5 enrollment drastically go down due to COVID related remote learning? Maybe, it went down by 311 students that year. But in the years since, it has stabilized. The lowest years of K-5 enrollment were 2007–2013. Shoreline closed 2 elementary schools in 2007. Does school closure potentially reduce enrollment?
In terms of the other data, The K-6 data (green) is here simply to show that it follows a very similar trend with K-5, no surprises — so you can clearly see that the chart presented by the district doesn’t show declining elementary enrollment. It shows the shift of 6th grades to middle schools. The total K-12 data (blue) similarly shows the same trend overall. For total district K-12 enrollment, the current October enrollment number of 9163 is actually higher than the average of 12 of the last 18 years. October K-12 numbers are coming from the slides presented at the September 25 Task Force meeting, which states data was updated 9/16/24. Did K-12 enrollment drastically go down due to COVID related remote learning? It may have, total district enrollment dropped by 347 that year, most of which is represented in the K-5 age group. Again, total district enrollment has been climbing for 4 consecutive years, and is currently at 97% of peak.
Despite enrollment being up, the district is still citing a forecast of declining enrollment repeatedly in nearly all materials. In their own 2024–25 Budget Summary they both admit that:
Revenue for 2023–24 is projected to end $4.4 million higher than budgeted, due to several reasons, including the following factors:
Increase in student actual average enrollment from September through May versus budget
While still forecasting a decline in enrollment for the following year:
Enrollment is projected to continue to decline 134 full-time students, compared to 2024–25
Grade K change (18)
Grades 1–5 change (72)
Grades 6–8 change +7
Grades 9–12 change (51)
If they cite declining enrollment year after year as a rationale for the budget crisis, but that isn’t the reality of the data, should we trust their continued low enrollment predictions?
Quick Highlights:
- Most recent K-12 enrollment is higher now than the average in 12 of the last 18 years.
- K-5 enrollment has been virtually flat for the last 5 years, but is not declining.
- When enrollment goes up, funding goes up. According to the district (see page 4),
Student enrollment drives revenue 100 students = ~$1 million
and…
The number of students projected to enroll in the fall determines the number of teachers and support staff that each school receives. That is, enrollment translates into staff positions, which translates into salaries and benefits.
This means that given current enrollment numbers, the district should be looking at some increase in funding this year. Can they hire new teachers to keep class sizes down?
A few questions to consider:
- Why isn’t the district talking about this?
2. Why did a parent dig up this data, rather that the school board asking questions about this slide? Where is the oversight?
3. Why was their slide even created like this? Was it purposely misleading, or just bad data management/analysis?
4. Are they going to hire more teachers? We have 5th grades with 33+ students in them, which is not a healthy learning environment.
5. Should we really be considering closing Highland Terrace Elementary if enrollment is going up across the district?
I’m not presenting this data to reduce advocacy, but to focus attention where it needs to be. The district needs to stop citing declining enrollment and focus attention where it needs to be: our state funding model is broken. We do still have a public education funding crisis in Washington, and it is urgent.
So what can you do now?
- Please check out the Shoreline PTA Council Advocacy website for detailed background information and action items you can take.
2. Subscribe to the Advocacy Network — quick steps right to your inbox!
Copied directly from the advocacy website:
1). Follow up with your State legislators. Thank them for their time and investments, but remind them that these gaps still exist for Shoreline and many other districts: special education, MSOC (utilities/insurance), transportation, and an understaffed prototypical school model. Let them know: 43% of the state budget is going towards the “paramount duty” of public education instead of 51% at its peak. Funding has decreased by $1k per pupil over the last 5 years
https://app.leg.wa.gov/districtfinder/
Legislators for 1st (Lake Forest Park) & 32nd (Shoreline) Legislative Districts:
- Senator Derek Stanford: derek.stanford@leg.wa.gov / (360) 786–7600
- Representative Shelley Kloba: shelley.kloba@leg.wa.gov / (360) 786–7900
- Representative Davina Duerr: davina.duerr@leg.wa.gov / (360) 786–7928
32nd Legislative District
- Senator Jesse Salomon: jesse.salomon@leg.wa.gov / (360) 786–7662
- Representative Cindy Ryu: cindy.ryu@leg.wa.gov / (360) 786–7880
- Representative Lauren Davis: lauren.davis@leg.wa.gov / (360) 786–7910
2). Consider contacting your Federal legislators regarding IDEA (Individuals with Disabilities Education Act) funding. Under IDEA, the federal government committed to pay 40% of the average per pupil expenditure for special education. However, that pledge has never been met, and current funding is at less than 13%.
Ask the federal government to fully fund its agreed upon share which would fill many districts’ special education funding gaps.
https://www.congress.gov/members/find-your-member
3). Stay informed by attending upcoming School Board meetings or watch/read past School Board meeting minutes/agendas.
4). Stay connected to your local PTA, PTA council and/or consider joining the PTA Council Advocacy Committee. Learn more here.
5). Spread the word and ask other Shoreline and LFP public school supporters to subscribe to the Action Network.
Finally, I need to thank my former neighbor and friend Albert Wong for his very detailed work on the Seattle Public Schools data. Check out some of his great work here:
Facts Matter: SPS Enrollment Much Higher Now Than The 2000s
Anti Asian bias in Seattle School leadership and advocacy community
